Zohran Mamdani sworn in as mayor of New York City

 Will there be a war between Iran and the United States? What will be the impact on the world?

Will there be a war between Iran and the United States? What will be the impact on the world

Will there be a war between Iran and the United States? What will be the impact on the world? The United States appears poised to attack Iran in a matter of days. So while we can probably guess

what the targets will be, Revolutionary Guards, bases, missile storage depots, [music] maybe nuclear sites, we don't know what the outcome will be. Here are seven possible outcomes, ranging from hopeful to devastating.

Scenario number one, the United States launches a series of surgical precision strikes to avoid civilian casualties, takes out Revolutionary Guard Corps bases,

takes out the leadership as it was, possibly tries to target some nuclear sites, and the regime falls, and there is a brief period of democracy, and ultimately a period of uncertain democracy.

That's pretty optimistic. If you look at the record of Western interventions in the Middle East, they haven't gone very well. Um, look at Syria, look at Libya, look at Iraq;

Most of these interventions have always been followed by chaos and disarray and bloodshed and terrible instability. So, I think that's what people are saying

: the future could be a savior. He would be an interim ruler, a kind of caretaker, before elections, and Iran would eventually rejoin the rest of the world.

But as I say, that's optimistic. Scenario number two is that the regime survives, but it feels very threatened and constrained by the large U.S. military presence around the region.

I mean, just look at this map here. You have U.S. bases and facilities all over the region.

Una gran cantidad de armamento. Parte de él está estacionado permanentemente allí. Part of it has been betrayed in the last days. Ahora bien, eso podría significar que el régimen sigue válido, como en Venezuela.

Aún existe, pero ha perdido su leadership y se ha visto obligado a cambiar de rumbo para moderar su behavior y sus políticas.

This is a possibility. Lo llamo el modelo venezolano. Scenario number three: the regime falls, and the military takes power. ¿Quién tomará el poder? No serán los militares tradicionales.

I believe that it is improbable because all power remains in the hands of the Guardia Revolucionaria, the enemy militia. They are very numerous. They are deeply rooted in the country.

So there could be a military coup. Eso no resolvería realmente el problema para los protestantes y probabilidad tampoco para el presidente Trump, pero es una posibilidad.

Escenario número cuatro, y no tienen por qué ser mutuamente excluyentes. Podría ocurrir al mismo tiempo que Irán responde a cualquier ataque, como dijo que haría.

Han dicho que tenemos el dedo en el triggerillo y que les quedan suficiente

s misiles para alcanzar bases estudiantes en la región. Pueden alcanzar a Israel, Jordania, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, la UEIE.

For example, in Qatar is the air base of Al-Wadad, the center of the air force of the coalition, from where the United States carries out all its air operations in the Middle East.

They have a naval base in Bahrain. There are many objectives, and although the United States and its allies have very strong air defenses in the region, some of these missiles will probably get through.

The fifth scenario would be that Iran mines the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow passage through which flows annually approximately a quarter of liquid natural gas, oil, and petroleum products from the world.

This would have an enormous impact on commerce and the global economy. Lo hacen. La Guardia Revolucionaria Iraní, known as the Armada, has not only fast boats and patrol boats capable of laying mines, but also fishing boats where some of these weapons are stored. Así que no parecen objetivos militares, sino que, de hecho, se remontan a la guerra de los petroleros de 1980-1988 entre Irán e Irak.

I am old enough to remember where the mines were planted in Iran.

Los cazadores de minas de la Marina Real tuvieron que ayudar a retirarlas. Es una amenaza real para el transporte marítimo. Por supuesto, it will harm Iran, because its exports will be interrupted, and it will harm China, which buys much Iranian oil. It would be counterproductive, but in a moment of desperation, it is a possibility.

The sixth scenario is that Iran takes reprisals and uses tactics of enjambre. In other words, the mass of something.

Logran superar las defensas cercanas de los buques de guerra estudiantes y hundir uno. And I remember that a captain of the US Navy said to me in a warship in the Gulf:

Esa fue su pesadilla. Ahora, están prácticamente indefensos. Tienen, ya sabes, un portaviones que no navega solo. Es destructive. Es de todo tipo.

From a defensive point of view. Y tienen cañones que pueden intenta

r destruir cosas lanzando munición muy rápidamente. But Iran has practiced much asymmetric or conventional warfare,

Donde han visto tecniques de enjambre, where they launch not only dozens, but hundreds of explosive drones that attack one or several objectives, and also fire many torpedoes to try to confuse.

Zohran Mamdani sworn in as mayor of New York City

National war where it looks at swarm techniques, where they will launch not just dozens but hundreds of explosive drones that will pick on a target or even multiple targets

and at the same time, fire many torpedoes to try to confuse and overwhelm the defenses of the US Navy carrier strike group.

If they were successful in sinking the warship, it would be a complete humiliation for America. I mean, it would be a nightmare like what happened with Jimmy Carter’s presidency.

When he tried to rescue captured American diplomats who had been captured by Iran and had a failed mission to rescue them in 1980 that ended in disaster.

Scenario number seven, and this is the one that has made people in the region nervous. The government falls, and chaos ensues with ethnic tensions

spreading across the surface. Kurds, Baluchis, and Azerbaijanis are all looking out for their own interests. The problems that have been on paper so far by the Islamic Republic are starting to emerge,

but rather than people taking up arms, scores are being settled, the whole country is descending into absolute murderous chaos, and creating a huge humanitarian and refugee crisis.

One of the main reasons why countries like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE are so concerned about this attack is that it is easy to attack, but how do you predict the outcome?

And here is certainly a concern for someone who has spent a lot of time in the Middle East that Donald Trump marched his troops to the top of the mountain

Now it feels like he has to do something or not without knowing what the outcome [music] and the end state will be.

The government falls, and what happens after the chaos with ethnic tensions bubbles to the surface. Kurds, Baluchis, and Uzbeks all look out for their own interests.

The problems that have been on paper so far by the Islamic Republic are starting to really emerge, but people are taking up arms,

the score is being settled, the whole country is heading towards absolute murderous chaos, and creating a huge humanitarian and refugee crisis. One of the main reasons why countries like Saudi Arabia,

Qatar and the UAE are so concerned about this attack because it is easy to attack, but how do you predict the outcome?

And here, of course, the worrying thing for me, who has spent a lot of time in the Middle East, is that

Donald Trump has marched his troops to the top of the mountain [music] and now feels that he has to do something or not without knowing what the outcome [music] and the end state are going to be.